#OBAMAFAIL: NEW MEXICO NOW A BATTLEGROUND STATE

Obama lead in New Mexico declining
PPP's newest New Mexico poll finds the race for President there getting a lot more competitive. Barack Obama continues to lead but his advantage is down to 5 points at 49-44, a far cry from the leads of 14 and 15 points he had on our previous two polls of the state.

The big difference between now and April comes with Democrats. Previously Obama was winning them 85-12 but now that lead is down to 73-21. New Mexico is a state, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where any chance at victory for Romney is going to require winning over a significant number of conservative Democrats. Right now he's doing a pretty decent job of that.

New Mexico still looks like a lean Obama state, but a surprise choice by Mitt Romney of Susana Martinez as his running mate could make the state a toss up. With her on the ticket Obama's lead drops all the way down to 48-47. That's a testament to Martinez's appeal with Democrats. She would reduce Obama's lead with them even further to 70-25. There aren't a lot of potential VP choices who would make a big difference in their home states, but there also aren't a lot with a 56/34 approval spread.

Gary Johnson's potential impact on the race in New Mexico just keeps on declining. In December he was polling at 23%. By April that was down to 15% and now we find him at only 13%. Interestingly he hurts Obama a little bit more than Romney, pulling the President's lead down to 42-38. He gets 24% of the independent vote, and a lot of his support is coming from more Democratic leaning independents. Voters in the state are closely divided on Johnson with 39% rating him favorably and 40% unfavorably.

Obama's net approval has dropped 9 points since we last surveyed New Mexico from +9 at 53/44 in April to now break even with 48% of voters approving of him and 48% disapproving. Romney's favorability is up a net 13 points from its previous -22, although he's still on negative ground at -9 with 41% of voters rating him positively and 50% expressing an unfavorable view of him.
New Mexico makes it five battleground states in the last two weeks where PPP has found opposition to Obama's new immigration policy. 41% of voters support it with 46% against. Voters also narrowly disagree with the Supreme Court's decision on health care with 42% agreeing with it to 46% who dissent.

Obama probably doesn't need to worry too much about losing New Mexico but its increased competitiveness is certainly another sign that he's not as strong as he was last time around.

Full results here

PPP polling-Obama up big in New Mexico

New Mexico is not going to be a swing state this year.
Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 15 points there in 2008, and the polling so far suggests a similar outcome is likely this fall. PPP's newest poll finds Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54-40 in the state. That's changed little from when we polled the state in December and found Obama up 53-38.
Obama's overwhelming support from three groups that have received a lot of attention lately- women, Hispanics, and young voters- makes it very hard for Romney to be competitive in New Mexico. Obama's up 61-35 with women, 67-30 with Hispanics, and 56-35 with young voters.
Although Susana Martinez is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of her to 38% who disapprove, her presence on the ticket- which she's pretty much ruled out anyway- wouldn't do much to make Romney competitive. A Romney/Martinez slate still trails Obama/Biden by a 53-42 margin.
That still doesn't take away from how impressive Martinez's numbers are. Her 54% approval rating ranks her 9th in the country out of more than 40 Governors PPP has polled on in the last couple years and the fact that she's doing it even as the state prepares to vote overwhelmingly for Obama is all the more striking. She has an outstanding 60/26 spread with independents and a much higher than normal level of crossover support with 31% of Democrats approving of her.
Obama's approval numbers in the state are on the rise. 53% of voters think he's doing a good job to 44% who disapprove. That's up from a 49/46 spread in December. The movement has been mostly due to a trend we're seeing across the country- Democrats unifying around Obama. He was at just 72/21 with his party's voters on the previous poll, but has now improved to 83/14 on that front. Many Democrats unhappy with Obama during his first three years in office have put those differences aside. Romney's seen some improvement in the state as well. His favorability numbers are still dismal at 33/55, but that's at least up from 27/58 in December. The improvement has come completely with Republicans, while his numbers have stayed steady with Democrats and independents.
Gary Johnson's third party Presidential bid may be hurting his image in his home state. In December his favorability rating was on positive ground at 45/39 and 23% of voters said they'd choose him in a three way contest with Obama and Romney. Now his favorability numbers have flipped negative to 37/42 and he gets only 15% as a third party candidate. Obama leads Romney 48-35 when Johnson's included so it doesn't look like he'd have a real strong spoiler effect one way or another.
Full results here

Can Heather Wilson pick up a Senate seat in New Mexico?

By Jennifer Rubin

Former New Mexico congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) has tried this before. In 2008, she ran for the U.S. Senate but lost narrowly in the primary to Steve Pearce. That might have been fortunate for Wilson’s future political prospects. In a victorious Democratic election cycle, Pearce went on to get clobbered by Tom Udall by more than 20 points, while President Obama carried the state by 14 points. In 2012, however, the political landscape has changed, and Wilson’s prospects to take back a seat from the Democrats looks good. But why would she want to work in a dysfunctional place like the U.S. Senate?

 Wilson told me on Tuesday during our interview on Capitol Hill that what is appealing about the Senate is the chance to “shape the agenda.” That’s something the current Democratic leadership, which refused again this week to pass the budget, certainly hasn’t done.

 Wilson got her start in national politics under the tutelage of a New Mexico legend, Republican Sen. Pete Domenici, for whom she has great admiration and affection. In the Senate, he was a tough negotiator, but back in New Mexico, she said, “He was just ‘Pete.’ ” Her other model is former senator Jack Danforth (R-Mo.), a conservative respected on both sides of the aisle and a man with a wonkish devotion to policy.

 Wilson is a conservative in what has lately been a blue state. But like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, she is the sort of Republican who has successfully rounded up votes from independents and Democrats. She told me, “I became a Republican because I trust people more than I trust government” to make important life decisions. And as important, she said, “After Vietnam, the Democrats became fundamentally the anti-military as a party.” As a former Air Force officer and a National Security staffer (for President George W. Bush), she is all too aware that in a crisis we don’t have time to rebuild a depleted military; A responsible, long-term plan for defense spending has to be in place. continue here