#OBAMAFAIL: NEW MEXICO NOW A BATTLEGROUND STATE

Obama lead in New Mexico declining
PPP's newest New Mexico poll finds the race for President there getting a lot more competitive. Barack Obama continues to lead but his advantage is down to 5 points at 49-44, a far cry from the leads of 14 and 15 points he had on our previous two polls of the state.

The big difference between now and April comes with Democrats. Previously Obama was winning them 85-12 but now that lead is down to 73-21. New Mexico is a state, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where any chance at victory for Romney is going to require winning over a significant number of conservative Democrats. Right now he's doing a pretty decent job of that.

New Mexico still looks like a lean Obama state, but a surprise choice by Mitt Romney of Susana Martinez as his running mate could make the state a toss up. With her on the ticket Obama's lead drops all the way down to 48-47. That's a testament to Martinez's appeal with Democrats. She would reduce Obama's lead with them even further to 70-25. There aren't a lot of potential VP choices who would make a big difference in their home states, but there also aren't a lot with a 56/34 approval spread.

Gary Johnson's potential impact on the race in New Mexico just keeps on declining. In December he was polling at 23%. By April that was down to 15% and now we find him at only 13%. Interestingly he hurts Obama a little bit more than Romney, pulling the President's lead down to 42-38. He gets 24% of the independent vote, and a lot of his support is coming from more Democratic leaning independents. Voters in the state are closely divided on Johnson with 39% rating him favorably and 40% unfavorably.

Obama's net approval has dropped 9 points since we last surveyed New Mexico from +9 at 53/44 in April to now break even with 48% of voters approving of him and 48% disapproving. Romney's favorability is up a net 13 points from its previous -22, although he's still on negative ground at -9 with 41% of voters rating him positively and 50% expressing an unfavorable view of him.
New Mexico makes it five battleground states in the last two weeks where PPP has found opposition to Obama's new immigration policy. 41% of voters support it with 46% against. Voters also narrowly disagree with the Supreme Court's decision on health care with 42% agreeing with it to 46% who dissent.

Obama probably doesn't need to worry too much about losing New Mexico but its increased competitiveness is certainly another sign that he's not as strong as he was last time around.

Full results here

Feds link immigrant license fraud ring to NM

The Associated Press ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Five Albuquerque-area residents were named in a recently unsealed federal indictment connected to what authorities say is a multistate scam abusing New Mexico's law that allows illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses.

Federal investigators say 30 people from five states were involved in a scheme using false documents to fraudulently obtain New Mexico driver's licenses for illegal immigrants in other states.

New Mexico and Washington state are the only states that allow illegal immigrants to obtain the same driver's license as a U.S. citizen, but proof of a local address is required.

The indictment unsealed late Tuesday said the New Mexico residents would help people in South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Georgia get the licenses.

"It was part of the conspiracy that individuals who were in the country illegally ... and not residents of New Mexico, would obtain driver's licenses from New Mexico using false documents and through false representations," the indictment said. About 92,000 foreign national licenses have been issued in New Mexico since 2003. Out of those, only 16,000 license holders filed a state income tax return this year, officials say.

(snip)

Republican Gov. Susana Martinez has repeatedly pressed state lawmakers to repeal New Mexico's law over fraud concerns.

"New Mexico's driver's license policy has once again attracted criminal elements to our state in pursuit of a government-issued identification card," Martinez said in a statement. "Our current system jeopardizes the safety and security of all New Mexicans and it is abundantly clear that the only way to solve this problem is to repeal the law that gives driver's licenses to illegal immigrants." Full article

$335,310 Per Job: The Cost of the Obama Stimulus in New Mexico

The billions have been spent. The data has been released. How efficiently did President Obama’s controversial stimulus package create or retain jobs in New Mexico? Based on the government’s own data, the Obama stimulus required $335,310 on average for each of the jobs it claims to have created or retained in New Mexico. report is here

Video collection for district 34

Interviews with Republican candidates Ron Griggs and Dion Kidd-Johnson. Dist.34-Contested Primary


Ellen Wedum - Democrat Candidate NM Senate Dist 34-Uncontested Primary  

Full coverage (55 minutes) of the candidate forum for NM Senate, District 34, sponsored by the Republican Party of Otero County.

Republicans have chance to control New Mexico House

Alamogordo Daily News SANTA FE Republicans last controlled the New Mexico House of Representatives when Dwight Eisenhower was president and Rocky Marciano was the heavyweight boxing champion. It was 1953 when they held a 28-27 majority. Republicans think 2013 could be their year to take back the House. Democrats are in control, but the margin is close. They number 36 compared to 33 Republicans and one independent. The June 5 primary elections will be a first step in reshaping the House of Representatives. These primary races could be pivotal as to which party runs the House for the next two years. analysis here

Susana Martinez: What New Mexico's Governor Can Teach the GOP

Why the country’s first Latina governor might be Mitt’s best veep pick.

From The Daily Beast
 Unless you happen to live near vast stretches of sand, sagebrush, and adobe, chances are you have no idea who Susana Martinez is. That’s a pity, because she may be the boldest, savviest vice presidential pick Mitt Romney could make. Consider Romney’s vulnerabilities. He trails Barack Obama by as many as 56 percentage points among Latinos.

Women prefer the president by roughly 20 points. Conservatives still distrust him, and populists in both parties suspect that he’s a vulture capitalist who likes to fire people. New Mexico’s Martinez, the first Latina governor in U.S. history, would solve each of these problems, or help as much as any running mate conceivably could.

Within minutes of meeting me in Santa Fe one morning last month, she is speaking fluent Spanish, reminiscing about the .357 magnum she acquired at age 18, and describing her family’s mom-and-pop security business back in El Paso. A scout from Boston would have been very pleased.
(snip)
Even though some initiatives have fallen short, she has managed to cut spending by roughly $150 million without raising taxes, scale back the state workforce by more than 5 percent, ease environmental regulations, preserve tax breaks designed to attract large corporations, eliminate redundant taxes on small businesses, and increase local control over public schools by opting out of No Child Left Behind.

“She’s been well-received in the state, but she has not come out a commanding winner in her battles with the Democratic legislature,” says Christine Sierra, a politics professor at the University of New Mexico. “So the jury is still out.”
Read much more here.

NM governor's grandfather not an illegal immigrant, became a US citizen in 1942

Excerpt from AP story here The questions arose after the former prosecutor advocated early last year the repeal of a 2003 law that allowed foreign nationals without Social Security numbers, including illegal immigrants, to get driver's licenses.

News accounts about a 1930 census initially fueled the idea that Martinez's paternal grandparents had illegally entered the country. The census used an "AL" to designate that her grandparents were "aliens."

That designation wasn't an indication of whether they lawfully entered the U.S. It only meant they were not citizens and hadn't filed papers declaring their intent to become one, according to historians and immigration experts.

Critics who opposed Martinez's proposal seized on the reports, arguing that her family offered an example of illegal immigrants coming to the U.S. for a better life and that her proposal was denying others the same chance.

When the questions arose, she couldn't turn to her parents. Her father has Alzheimer's disease and her mother died in 2006. The grandfather died in 1976.

So she initially accepted media accounts and acknowledged that it appeared her grandparents had come to the U.S. without immigration documents. Meanwhile, her proposal died in the Democratic-controlled Legislature.

To try to deal with lingering questions, her political organization last fall found documents that indicated her grandfather, Adolfo R. Martinez, had crossed the border several times in the early 1900s.

The immigration documents showed her paternal grandparents followed common practices in crossing what was essentially an open border at the time. The documents weren't clear that he had been lawfully admitted for permanent residency.

The AP obtained a "certificate of naturalization," dated April 6, 1942, from the National Archives Southwest Region center in Fort Worth, Texas. When shown the document, Martinez said she was unaware that her grandfather had become a citizen.

Martinez said the citizenship information appears to resolve the immigration questions about her grandfather, but wasn't relevant to her political future or her continuing efforts to stop driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.

"I don't see its importance because of this," the governor said. "I've always known that my father's father and grandfather and grandmother were from Mexico. I've never denied it. I've always said it."

"Let's just say they did come here illegally. I don't see how I am responsible for that," she said. "I am an American citizen. I am a lawyer. I think it's important to always understand that we are a nation of laws."

The grandfather's "certificate of arrival" lists March 16, 1918, as the official date he was lawfully admitted to the U.S. for permanent residency. He arrived in El Paso, Texas, by traveling on the "El Paso Electric Railway," according to the document.

His "petition for naturalization" contains personal and family information, including the date and place of his marriage and that he had a scar on his right "first finger."

In El Paso, he worked as a taxi driver. The governor said he was estranged from his family of five children, who were born in the city. His wife died in 1934 at age 31, and the children were raised by the wife's mother _ Martinez's maternal great-grandmother.

Historians say immigration between the U.S. and Mexico was largely free of restrictions in the early 20th century. Mexicans could easily declare at checkpoints whether their stay was temporary or whether they intended to become permanent U.S. residents.

The grandfather and his wife paid a "head tax" in July 1918, which was required of immigrants. He obtained a border-crossing card in 1921, making travel easier during World War I, said Marian Smith, a historian at the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

He was 48 when he became a citizen in 1942. It's unclear why the grandfather waited for more than two decades before becoming a citizen.

Smith said many longtime immigrant residents decided to complete the naturalization process after a 1940 law that required the fingerprinting and registration of non-citizens living in the U.S. Another possibility was his marriage in 1941 to a U.S. citizen.

Martinez faces heat for helping in GOP senate race

SANTA FE, N.M. (AP) — Gov. Susana Martinez is drawing heat from a few Republicans for throwing her might and her political action committee’s money in a contested GOP primary for a state senate seat in eastern New Mexico.

 The Las Cruces Sun-News reports that Martinez is supporting Angie Spears over two other Republicans in a race for the state Senate in a rural, heavily Republican district around Clovis.

Spears’ two opponents say they do not appreciate Martinez taking a side in a campaign where no Democrats are running.

Trucking company owner Mark Myers, of Clovis, a candidate, said the governor should be pouring her energy into races where Democrats could be defeated. “I’m not associated with the circles of power. My only interest is in the people here,” the 44-year-old Myers said of Senate District 7, which includes Curry, Quay and Union counties.

Pat Woods, 62, a farmer and rancher from Broadview, is the third Republican candidate. “I’m disappointed that the governor got into the race,” he said.

Woods and Myers said they did not understand why Martinez elected to take sides in a primary.

Jay McCleskey, of the governor’s political committee, offered this explanation: “Governor Martinez endorsed Angie Spears when she was the only candidate in the race.”

McCleskey added that “in key races, Governor Martinez will support candidates that are committed to pursuing a reform agenda to move New Mexico forward, regardless of party affiliation and regardless of how loudly status-quo political bosses and lobbyists whine about it.”

Republican Clint Harden, the incumbent senator in District 7, announced on Feb. 18 that he would not seek re-election.

Spears had entered the race even before Harden decided to retire from politics. She received Martinez’s endorsement two days after Harden stepped aside.

Martinez’s Susana PAC has since donated $5,000 to Spears’ campaign. That was nearly a fifth of the $26,080 that Spears listed in contributions when she filed her first campaign statement this month.

In all, Spears raised a bit more money than Woods and Myers combined during the period. Much of the money Spears received came from other Republican politicians.

Spears, 38, who is clinical director of a counseling center for children, said she was happy to have the endorsements and financial help of politicians.

Still, Spears said she was taking nothing for granted, knowing that voters make the decision on who goes to the Senate.

“I’m out door-knocking in all three counties,” she said.

NM Supreme Court orders a racial redistricting plan

Excerpts:

"The court issued a 4-1 split decision that was a victory for Democrats and the Legislature, which had challenged a redistricting plan ordered last month by retired state District Judge James Hall."
"The justices directed Hall to look at changing a Clovis-area district to ensure that Hispanic voters have a strong enough majority to have a good chance of electing the candidate of their choice." Scroll down the page at this link, for the article

In a separate plea: On August 31, 2011, Native American leaders urged lawmakers to maintain the Indian-majority districts. Currently there are six state house and three state senate where Native Americans account for at least 65 percent of the population.

PPP polling-Obama up big in New Mexico

New Mexico is not going to be a swing state this year.
Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 15 points there in 2008, and the polling so far suggests a similar outcome is likely this fall. PPP's newest poll finds Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54-40 in the state. That's changed little from when we polled the state in December and found Obama up 53-38.
Obama's overwhelming support from three groups that have received a lot of attention lately- women, Hispanics, and young voters- makes it very hard for Romney to be competitive in New Mexico. Obama's up 61-35 with women, 67-30 with Hispanics, and 56-35 with young voters.
Although Susana Martinez is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of her to 38% who disapprove, her presence on the ticket- which she's pretty much ruled out anyway- wouldn't do much to make Romney competitive. A Romney/Martinez slate still trails Obama/Biden by a 53-42 margin.
That still doesn't take away from how impressive Martinez's numbers are. Her 54% approval rating ranks her 9th in the country out of more than 40 Governors PPP has polled on in the last couple years and the fact that she's doing it even as the state prepares to vote overwhelmingly for Obama is all the more striking. She has an outstanding 60/26 spread with independents and a much higher than normal level of crossover support with 31% of Democrats approving of her.
Obama's approval numbers in the state are on the rise. 53% of voters think he's doing a good job to 44% who disapprove. That's up from a 49/46 spread in December. The movement has been mostly due to a trend we're seeing across the country- Democrats unifying around Obama. He was at just 72/21 with his party's voters on the previous poll, but has now improved to 83/14 on that front. Many Democrats unhappy with Obama during his first three years in office have put those differences aside. Romney's seen some improvement in the state as well. His favorability numbers are still dismal at 33/55, but that's at least up from 27/58 in December. The improvement has come completely with Republicans, while his numbers have stayed steady with Democrats and independents.
Gary Johnson's third party Presidential bid may be hurting his image in his home state. In December his favorability rating was on positive ground at 45/39 and 23% of voters said they'd choose him in a three way contest with Obama and Romney. Now his favorability numbers have flipped negative to 37/42 and he gets only 15% as a third party candidate. Obama leads Romney 48-35 when Johnson's included so it doesn't look like he'd have a real strong spoiler effect one way or another.
Full results here

Can Heather Wilson pick up a Senate seat in New Mexico?

By Jennifer Rubin

Former New Mexico congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) has tried this before. In 2008, she ran for the U.S. Senate but lost narrowly in the primary to Steve Pearce. That might have been fortunate for Wilson’s future political prospects. In a victorious Democratic election cycle, Pearce went on to get clobbered by Tom Udall by more than 20 points, while President Obama carried the state by 14 points. In 2012, however, the political landscape has changed, and Wilson’s prospects to take back a seat from the Democrats looks good. But why would she want to work in a dysfunctional place like the U.S. Senate?

 Wilson told me on Tuesday during our interview on Capitol Hill that what is appealing about the Senate is the chance to “shape the agenda.” That’s something the current Democratic leadership, which refused again this week to pass the budget, certainly hasn’t done.

 Wilson got her start in national politics under the tutelage of a New Mexico legend, Republican Sen. Pete Domenici, for whom she has great admiration and affection. In the Senate, he was a tough negotiator, but back in New Mexico, she said, “He was just ‘Pete.’ ” Her other model is former senator Jack Danforth (R-Mo.), a conservative respected on both sides of the aisle and a man with a wonkish devotion to policy.

 Wilson is a conservative in what has lately been a blue state. But like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, she is the sort of Republican who has successfully rounded up votes from independents and Democrats. She told me, “I became a Republican because I trust people more than I trust government” to make important life decisions. And as important, she said, “After Vietnam, the Democrats became fundamentally the anti-military as a party.” As a former Air Force officer and a National Security staffer (for President George W. Bush), she is all too aware that in a crisis we don’t have time to rebuild a depleted military; A responsible, long-term plan for defense spending has to be in place. continue here

Kidd-Johnson stumps for open N.M. Senate seat

Dion Kidd-Johnson is running for the District 34 state Senate seat in the Republican primary. She is up against former Alamogordo Mayor Ron Griggs to replace the retiring State Senator Vernon Asbill.

Dion Kidd-Johnson Endorsed by Senator Vernon Asbill: I am writing you today to ask for your support of Dion Kidd-Johnson as the candidate for Senate District #34 of the New Mexico State Senate. Even though I have chosen not to run again, it has become very clear to me that there is still so much work to be done in Santa Fe.
During my tenure of eight years, representing my constituents and protecting our Taxpayers was my main focus. As I have visited with Dion, her commitment to limited government growth and her pledge to continue the conservative nature of Senate District #34 is evident. Dion’s interest in Southeastern New Mexico is apparent because she has grown up in Carlsbad and has established herself as a business leader throughout New Mexico.
Dion has been actively involved in economic development and understands that economic development and education go hand in hand so we can guarantee that our children can stay in New Mexico and succeed without burdensome over-bloated government.
Dion has indicated that she will continue to fight unwarranted tax hikes and keep an eye on the fair implementation of those taxes we do pay. She will put families first and preserve their ability to make choices that make sense to them.
It is a true honor for me to recommend Dion Kidd-Johnson as the candidate that can serve in the New Mexico Senate with integrity and will be an excellent choice to represent you in Santa Fe. Your support is appreciated!

New Mexico’s governor is a rising star, but won’t enter the veepstakes.

Excerpt: Martinez likes policy. She’s already been tapped as the policy co-chair of the Republican Governors Association. “It’s my training to follow the evidence,” says the former prosecutor. And like a prosecutor on the offensive, she doesn’t suffer legislative nonsense gladly. During a recent debate over education reform, Martinez caught flak from some Democrats in the statehouse who complained that a renewed focus on reading in elementary schools was an “unfunded mandate.” She looks at me incredulously: “I just said, ‘What does that mean? What do we pay [teachers] to do?’ ”
“She’s just a professional, good person from southern New Mexico who wants to do something good for her state,” says Tom Hutchison, a restaurant owner in Mesilla. Jerry Pacheco, a business leader and vice president of the Border Industrial Association in Santa Teresa, calls Martinez “methodical,” “accessible,” and a “good listener.”
Perhaps these qualities help explain Martinez’s cross-party appeal. According to an April 3 poll by Rasmussen Reports, 60 percent of New Mexicans approve of her performance, up 7 points from the 53 percent of the vote she won in 2010. And in New Mexico, nearly half of registered voters are Democrats and only 30 percent are Republicans. According to her campaign’s internal numbers, Martinez won nearly a quarter of Democrats and over 40 percent of Hispanic voters. At a time when the GOP is accused of being antiwoman and anti-Hispanic, the conservative Martinez stands out as a living, breathing counterexample. Good article at the Weekly Standard