New Mexico is not going to be a swing state this year.
Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 15 points there in 2008, and the polling so far suggests a similar outcome is likely this fall. PPP's newest poll finds Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54-40 in the state. That's changed little from when we polled the state in December and found Obama up 53-38.
Obama's overwhelming support from three groups that have received a lot of attention lately- women, Hispanics, and young voters- makes it very hard for Romney to be competitive in New Mexico. Obama's up 61-35 with women, 67-30 with Hispanics, and 56-35 with young voters.
Although Susana Martinez is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of her to 38% who disapprove, her presence on the ticket- which she's pretty much ruled out anyway- wouldn't do much to make Romney competitive. A Romney/Martinez slate still trails Obama/Biden by a 53-42 margin.
That still doesn't take away from how impressive Martinez's numbers are. Her 54% approval rating ranks her 9th in the country out of more than 40 Governors PPP has polled on in the last couple years and the fact that she's doing it even as the state prepares to vote overwhelmingly for Obama is all the more striking. She has an outstanding 60/26 spread with independents and a much higher than normal level of crossover support with 31% of Democrats approving of her.
Obama's approval numbers in the state are on the rise. 53% of voters think he's doing a good job to 44% who disapprove. That's up from a 49/46 spread in December. The movement has been mostly due to a trend we're seeing across the country- Democrats unifying around Obama. He was at just 72/21 with his party's voters on the previous poll, but has now improved to 83/14 on that front. Many Democrats unhappy with Obama during his first three years in office have put those differences aside. Romney's seen some improvement in the state as well. His favorability numbers are still dismal at 33/55, but that's at least up from 27/58 in December. The improvement has come completely with Republicans, while his numbers have stayed steady with Democrats and independents.
Gary Johnson's third party Presidential bid may be hurting his image in his home state. In December his favorability rating was on positive ground at 45/39 and 23% of voters said they'd choose him in a three way contest with Obama and Romney. Now his favorability numbers have flipped negative to 37/42 and he gets only 15% as a third party candidate. Obama leads Romney 48-35 when Johnson's included so it doesn't look like he'd have a real strong spoiler effect one way or another.
Full results here
Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 15 points there in 2008, and the polling so far suggests a similar outcome is likely this fall. PPP's newest poll finds Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54-40 in the state. That's changed little from when we polled the state in December and found Obama up 53-38.
Obama's overwhelming support from three groups that have received a lot of attention lately- women, Hispanics, and young voters- makes it very hard for Romney to be competitive in New Mexico. Obama's up 61-35 with women, 67-30 with Hispanics, and 56-35 with young voters.
Although Susana Martinez is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of her to 38% who disapprove, her presence on the ticket- which she's pretty much ruled out anyway- wouldn't do much to make Romney competitive. A Romney/Martinez slate still trails Obama/Biden by a 53-42 margin.
That still doesn't take away from how impressive Martinez's numbers are. Her 54% approval rating ranks her 9th in the country out of more than 40 Governors PPP has polled on in the last couple years and the fact that she's doing it even as the state prepares to vote overwhelmingly for Obama is all the more striking. She has an outstanding 60/26 spread with independents and a much higher than normal level of crossover support with 31% of Democrats approving of her.
Obama's approval numbers in the state are on the rise. 53% of voters think he's doing a good job to 44% who disapprove. That's up from a 49/46 spread in December. The movement has been mostly due to a trend we're seeing across the country- Democrats unifying around Obama. He was at just 72/21 with his party's voters on the previous poll, but has now improved to 83/14 on that front. Many Democrats unhappy with Obama during his first three years in office have put those differences aside. Romney's seen some improvement in the state as well. His favorability numbers are still dismal at 33/55, but that's at least up from 27/58 in December. The improvement has come completely with Republicans, while his numbers have stayed steady with Democrats and independents.
Gary Johnson's third party Presidential bid may be hurting his image in his home state. In December his favorability rating was on positive ground at 45/39 and 23% of voters said they'd choose him in a three way contest with Obama and Romney. Now his favorability numbers have flipped negative to 37/42 and he gets only 15% as a third party candidate. Obama leads Romney 48-35 when Johnson's included so it doesn't look like he'd have a real strong spoiler effect one way or another.
Full results here
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