PPP polling-Obama up big in New Mexico

New Mexico is not going to be a swing state this year.
Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 15 points there in 2008, and the polling so far suggests a similar outcome is likely this fall. PPP's newest poll finds Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 54-40 in the state. That's changed little from when we polled the state in December and found Obama up 53-38.
Obama's overwhelming support from three groups that have received a lot of attention lately- women, Hispanics, and young voters- makes it very hard for Romney to be competitive in New Mexico. Obama's up 61-35 with women, 67-30 with Hispanics, and 56-35 with young voters.
Although Susana Martinez is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of her to 38% who disapprove, her presence on the ticket- which she's pretty much ruled out anyway- wouldn't do much to make Romney competitive. A Romney/Martinez slate still trails Obama/Biden by a 53-42 margin.
That still doesn't take away from how impressive Martinez's numbers are. Her 54% approval rating ranks her 9th in the country out of more than 40 Governors PPP has polled on in the last couple years and the fact that she's doing it even as the state prepares to vote overwhelmingly for Obama is all the more striking. She has an outstanding 60/26 spread with independents and a much higher than normal level of crossover support with 31% of Democrats approving of her.
Obama's approval numbers in the state are on the rise. 53% of voters think he's doing a good job to 44% who disapprove. That's up from a 49/46 spread in December. The movement has been mostly due to a trend we're seeing across the country- Democrats unifying around Obama. He was at just 72/21 with his party's voters on the previous poll, but has now improved to 83/14 on that front. Many Democrats unhappy with Obama during his first three years in office have put those differences aside. Romney's seen some improvement in the state as well. His favorability numbers are still dismal at 33/55, but that's at least up from 27/58 in December. The improvement has come completely with Republicans, while his numbers have stayed steady with Democrats and independents.
Gary Johnson's third party Presidential bid may be hurting his image in his home state. In December his favorability rating was on positive ground at 45/39 and 23% of voters said they'd choose him in a three way contest with Obama and Romney. Now his favorability numbers have flipped negative to 37/42 and he gets only 15% as a third party candidate. Obama leads Romney 48-35 when Johnson's included so it doesn't look like he'd have a real strong spoiler effect one way or another.
Full results here

Can Heather Wilson pick up a Senate seat in New Mexico?

By Jennifer Rubin

Former New Mexico congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) has tried this before. In 2008, she ran for the U.S. Senate but lost narrowly in the primary to Steve Pearce. That might have been fortunate for Wilson’s future political prospects. In a victorious Democratic election cycle, Pearce went on to get clobbered by Tom Udall by more than 20 points, while President Obama carried the state by 14 points. In 2012, however, the political landscape has changed, and Wilson’s prospects to take back a seat from the Democrats looks good. But why would she want to work in a dysfunctional place like the U.S. Senate?

 Wilson told me on Tuesday during our interview on Capitol Hill that what is appealing about the Senate is the chance to “shape the agenda.” That’s something the current Democratic leadership, which refused again this week to pass the budget, certainly hasn’t done.

 Wilson got her start in national politics under the tutelage of a New Mexico legend, Republican Sen. Pete Domenici, for whom she has great admiration and affection. In the Senate, he was a tough negotiator, but back in New Mexico, she said, “He was just ‘Pete.’ ” Her other model is former senator Jack Danforth (R-Mo.), a conservative respected on both sides of the aisle and a man with a wonkish devotion to policy.

 Wilson is a conservative in what has lately been a blue state. But like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, she is the sort of Republican who has successfully rounded up votes from independents and Democrats. She told me, “I became a Republican because I trust people more than I trust government” to make important life decisions. And as important, she said, “After Vietnam, the Democrats became fundamentally the anti-military as a party.” As a former Air Force officer and a National Security staffer (for President George W. Bush), she is all too aware that in a crisis we don’t have time to rebuild a depleted military; A responsible, long-term plan for defense spending has to be in place. continue here

Kidd-Johnson stumps for open N.M. Senate seat

Dion Kidd-Johnson is running for the District 34 state Senate seat in the Republican primary. She is up against former Alamogordo Mayor Ron Griggs to replace the retiring State Senator Vernon Asbill.

Dion Kidd-Johnson Endorsed by Senator Vernon Asbill: I am writing you today to ask for your support of Dion Kidd-Johnson as the candidate for Senate District #34 of the New Mexico State Senate. Even though I have chosen not to run again, it has become very clear to me that there is still so much work to be done in Santa Fe.
During my tenure of eight years, representing my constituents and protecting our Taxpayers was my main focus. As I have visited with Dion, her commitment to limited government growth and her pledge to continue the conservative nature of Senate District #34 is evident. Dion’s interest in Southeastern New Mexico is apparent because she has grown up in Carlsbad and has established herself as a business leader throughout New Mexico.
Dion has been actively involved in economic development and understands that economic development and education go hand in hand so we can guarantee that our children can stay in New Mexico and succeed without burdensome over-bloated government.
Dion has indicated that she will continue to fight unwarranted tax hikes and keep an eye on the fair implementation of those taxes we do pay. She will put families first and preserve their ability to make choices that make sense to them.
It is a true honor for me to recommend Dion Kidd-Johnson as the candidate that can serve in the New Mexico Senate with integrity and will be an excellent choice to represent you in Santa Fe. Your support is appreciated!

New Mexico’s governor is a rising star, but won’t enter the veepstakes.

Excerpt: Martinez likes policy. She’s already been tapped as the policy co-chair of the Republican Governors Association. “It’s my training to follow the evidence,” says the former prosecutor. And like a prosecutor on the offensive, she doesn’t suffer legislative nonsense gladly. During a recent debate over education reform, Martinez caught flak from some Democrats in the statehouse who complained that a renewed focus on reading in elementary schools was an “unfunded mandate.” She looks at me incredulously: “I just said, ‘What does that mean? What do we pay [teachers] to do?’ ”
“She’s just a professional, good person from southern New Mexico who wants to do something good for her state,” says Tom Hutchison, a restaurant owner in Mesilla. Jerry Pacheco, a business leader and vice president of the Border Industrial Association in Santa Teresa, calls Martinez “methodical,” “accessible,” and a “good listener.”
Perhaps these qualities help explain Martinez’s cross-party appeal. According to an April 3 poll by Rasmussen Reports, 60 percent of New Mexicans approve of her performance, up 7 points from the 53 percent of the vote she won in 2010. And in New Mexico, nearly half of registered voters are Democrats and only 30 percent are Republicans. According to her campaign’s internal numbers, Martinez won nearly a quarter of Democrats and over 40 percent of Hispanic voters. At a time when the GOP is accused of being antiwoman and anti-Hispanic, the conservative Martinez stands out as a living, breathing counterexample. Good article at the Weekly Standard